KEY FORECAST TRENDS
- The near-term outlook for global growth is likely to be determined by two key factors: the pace of COVID-19 vaccination programs and fiscal stimulus.
- The US is at a significant advantage over other advanced economies in these areas, and we expect economic growth there to reach 6.5% in 2021 and 4.6% next year. This would push the level of output above the pre-pandemic trend.
- With rising COVID-19 cases likely to delay the reopening of economies in Europe, we’re more cautious on the euro area’s prospects. Output there is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels until well into 2022.
- In China, output is already above the pre-pandemic trend. With economic and social stability paramount, China is likely to exert a stabilizing influence on global growth.