Election years usually come with increased equity market volatility, particularly in the last quarter of the year. Investors are understandably eager to position themselves for different scenarios ahead of the election and the expected increase in uncertainty. In this InFocus, Economist Joaquin Thul reviews the sectors that could benefit in the event of a Trump or Harris win.
US election polls currently show the race for the White House is very close, particularly in the swing states that determine the outcome. Since becoming the Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris has closed and now opened up a poll lead over Donald Trump nationally. Trump is marginally ahead in all but one of the swing states but the margin of error in such polls is, of course, always wide. In the absence of written manifestos, voters must rely on information gathered from a variety of media sources to ascertain what are the main policies of each candidate. It is important to stress that:
- Although we can summarise and contrast both candidates’ proposals, the enactment of most of these policies will be highly dependent on who controls the Senate and the House of Representatives. The more Congress is divided, the less opportunity there will be for bipartisan legislation;
- The US Constitution allows the President to decide on issues related to trade and military actions, without requiring approval from Congress. Issues related to taxation, public finances and civil rights need approval, which might not be easy to achieve if majorities are small or if Congress is split;
- From a financial market perspective, a Red or Blue “sweep” of the White House and both houses of Congress could potentially be the most disruptive scenario. This would make it easier for the controlling party to pass some of the more controversial proposed policies.
To discover our thoughts on how sectors could be impacted by a Trump or Harris win, read our full report here.