Take Two: US Inflation Rises; COP29 Focuses on Finance and Emissions Targets

US Inflation

US annual inflation rose for the first time in seven months in October, moving further away from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target. The headline Consumer Price Index rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, driven by higher housing and food prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 3.3%, the same pace as the month before and in line with forecasts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech last week that strong economic growth means the central bank does not need “to be in a hurry to lower rates”, though markets continue to expect the Fed to cut rates at its December meeting.

What do you need to know?

US annual inflation rose for the first time in seven months in October, moving further away from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target. The headline Consumer Price Index rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, driven by higher housing and food prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 3.3%, the same pace as the month before and in line with forecasts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech last week that strong economic growth means the central bank does not need “to be in a hurry to lower rates”, though markets continue to expect the Fed to cut rates at its December meeting.

Around the world

Helping developing countries tackle climate change was on the agenda at the United Nations climate change conference COP29, which began last Monday. The World Bank and other multilateral development banks announced they expected their combined financing for low and middle-income countries to reach $120bn a year by 2030 – a 60% increase on 2023’s total. Meanwhile some countries – including the UK and Brazil – set new emissions reduction targets, and an agreement was reached on rules for a global carbon market for emissions trading. Separately, the World Meteorological Organization said 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record.

Figure in focus: 0.4%

The Eurozone economy grew 0.4% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter (Q3), an official second estimate showed, unchanged from the earlier estimate. That compares to 0.2% growth in Q2. Compared with the same quarter the previous year, seasonally-adjusted GDP grew 0.9% after 0.6% in the previous quarter – the bloc’s best performance since Q1 2023. Elsewhere, Japan’s economy grew 0.9% in Q3 on an annualised basis, supported by consumer spending and marking its second consecutive quarter of expansion. However, this was a slowdown from Q2’s revised 2.2% growth.

Words of wisdom

Singles Day: Singles Day, also known as 11/11, takes place on 11 November and started in China as a celebration of being single. It has grown into the largest online shopping festival worldwide, with retailers offering sizeable discounts to rival those of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Market expectations for this year’s event were subdued as China faces an economic slowdown. However, while the largest retailers did not disclose their total sales, more than 500 brands achieved more than RMB 100m in gross merchandise volume, a 46.5% increase over last year, according to e-commerce giant Alibaba.

What's coming up?

The G20 Summit takes place on Monday and Tuesday, where world leaders will address a range of global challenges, while COP29 continues this week, coming to an end on Friday. Elsewhere, the Eurozone and Canada publish their latest October inflation figures on Tuesday, followed by the UK on Wednesday. On Friday, a spate of flash November Purchasing Managers’ Indices are published – including for the Eurozone, UK, US and Japan. 

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