Chart of the week – US dollar as the key driver of H1 returns
What can investors expect from markets in the second half of 2025? So far this year, fading US exceptionalism has been a defining feature of the investment landscape. For years, US leadership has been characterised by relatively strong GDP growth, outsized stock market returns, and the strength of the dollar. But as we explain in our Mid-Year Outlook, each of these pillars is now being challenged. For markets, it has been dollar weakness in particular, that has influenced returns in the first half – and that looks set to continue.