2022 Investment Outlook Update

Investment Outlook

Martin Currie: Increased geopolitical tension and further lockdowns in China are increasing the risk of an economic slowdown. However, in a world transitioning towards sustainability, exciting opportunities remain for long-term investors.


Investors focused on geopolitics with Russia and China seen as key uncertainties


The Russian invasion of Ukraine is leading to a tragic crisis for the Ukrainian people and is resulting in:


  • increased geopolitical risks across the world,
  • higher risk aversion amongst investors, and
  • a potentially negative impact on macroeconomic momentum.


The outcome of Ukraine-Russia conflict is highly uncertain, with the potential risk of the conflict both escalating and widening, which could further push the market into risk aversion. There is the likelihood of a growing focus on China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, with the second half of the year bringing the focus on President Xi Jinping’s likely third term as leader, and potentially beyond. This could unleash a more pronounced territorial ambition around Taiwan, in turn leading to a flare up in tensions, and adding further geopolitical risk that the market is not currently factoring in.


Cyber security attacks could also lead to an increased focus on the digital Cold War which is at risk of escalating. All in all, as mentioned in our 2022 outlook, geopolitical risks are now coming out in the open, which is in our view something that investors should increasingly focus on for the remainder of the year.



Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested.


Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging marketsCommodities and currencies contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors.


U.S. Treasuries are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government. The U.S. government guarantees the principal and interest payments on U.S. Treasuries when the securities are held to maturity. Unlike U.S. Treasuries, debt securities issued by the federal agencies and instrumentalities and related investments may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Even when the U.S. government guarantees principal and interest payments on securities, this guarantee does not apply to losses resulting from declines in the market value of these securities.


China may be subject to considerable degrees of economic, political and social instability. Investments in securities of Chinese issuers involve risks that are specific to China, including certain legal, regulatory, political and economic risks.

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